A dangerous climate emissions trajectory is implicit in the Aviation Green Paper draft policy map. Its growth objective will prevent almost any aviation emissions cuts, require expensive taxpayer subsidies, and deliver negative environmental impacts.

The Green paper’s “net zero 2050” flightpath …
has a 1 in 10 chance of pushing warming to 4ºC
We know from the IPCC, that there’s a less than 50:50 chance that net-zero emissions by 2050 will keep warming under 2ºC➊. Worse, there’s a one in ten chance the net-zero 2050 flightpath will trigger climate system feedbacks that push global boiling to a catastrophic 4°C➋.
A government with any concern for the future safety of Australians, and the planet’s life support systems, would not make targetting “net zero 2050” national aviation policy. 

ignores 2 thirds of aviation warming
Aviation is torching our climate. Planes cause more planet heating pollution than any other means of transport, due to the warming effects of their emissions at altitude. Each litre of jet fuel burnt heats the planet 2 or 3 times as much as a litre of car petrol➌. 

plays a 3 card trick, swapping SAF & offsets for real emissions reductions
Airlines claim they will run on ‘green’ fuels. But proposed biofuels can drive up food prices, and, together with synthetic fuels based on capturing carbon from the air, are hugely expensive, will not reduce emissions enough and can’t be scaled up in volume to replace jet diesel➍.
Offsetting will not cut actual aviation emissions by 4.9% each year as required under the Safeguard Mechanism. 

allows ongoing 4% annual growth in flights
In line with the 4% annual flight growth globally between 1978 and 2018, Australia’s aviation industry expects to grow 4% a year to 2050➎.
With minimal reductions possible in the immediate future — when cuts to near zero are needed to avoid 2+°C — Australian aviation emissions are set to grow at a similar rate.

High 5! A degrowth flightpath can cut emissions at emergency speed
Our government says there is no alternative to flying, while handing over $1bn a year➏ to the aviation industry and dragging its feet on prioritising inter-city fast rail up the east coast. Meanwhile the IPCC anticipates flight reductions cutting aviation emissions 40-70%➐.
The Aviation White Paper  needs to recommend a cap➑ — that reduces annually to near zero at emergency speed — in the volume of jet fuel burnt.  

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➊ Re IPCC Report of Working Group-III (WG-III) to the 6th Assessment cycle (AR6), 2022: For a 50% likelihood of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, emissions from 2020 need to be limited to only 500 Gt CO2 yet only 100 Gt CO2 remained by 2022. and for a 67% likelihood of limiting warming to 2°C emissions need to be limited to 1150 GtCO2.
> https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf
Re two-thirds had been emitted by 2022
> https://osf.io/ge92t/

➋ > https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691171326/climate-shock#
> https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-atlantic-ocean-to-the-amoc/

➌ > https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231020305689

➍ > https://stay-grounded.org/greenwashing/

➎ Re historic growth > https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/a-historically-resilient-industry/
Re future growth > https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/aviation_green_paper.pdf
p.96:  “Aircraft movements in Australia are expected to increase and could increase from 3 million up to between 8 and 10 million per year by 2050.”

➏ > https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/P1378-Fossil-fuel-subsidies-2023-Web.pdf

➐ > https://oncarbon.app/articles/ipcc-report-2022

➑ > https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344333610_Cap_and_Adapt_Failsafe_Policy_for_the_Climate_Emergency