Ongoing emissions from
… delusional pathways
NET ZERO 2050
Net zero emissions by 2050 allows ongoing emissions and subtracts from them carbon drawdown needed to cool an already dangerously hot planet
• Net Zero By 2050: 3 Obstacles Aviation Has To Overcome To Meet Its Sustainability Goal
https://simpleflying.com/aviation-sustainability-net-zero-2050-obstacles/
• Aviation sustainability – how is the industry moving from intention to transition
https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/video/aviation-sustainability—how-is-the-industry-moving-from-intention-to-transition-2150
• Flying Into the Future: Cambridge Charts Path to Zero Emissions in Aviation
https://scitechdaily.com/flying-into-the-future-cambridge-charts-path-to-zero-emissions-in-aviation/
• Towards True Climate Neutrality for Global Aviation: A Negative Emissions Fund for Airlines
https://www.academia.edu/91041601/Towards_True_Climate_Neutrality_for_Global_Aviation_A_Negative_Emissions_Fund_for_Airlines
… greenwashed fuels and engine
‘SUSTAINABLE’ AVIATION FUELS
The aviation industry uses marketing greenwash and accounting tricks to mislead you into thinking that actual flight emissions from ‘Sustainable’ Aviation Fuel (SAF) are a fraction of those from fossil jet fuel. A jet never burns pure SAF, so a common 50:50 blend with fossil jet fuel doubles claimed emissions. And actual flight CO2 emissions are additionally more than claimed, by the amount of CO2 drawn down in making the fuel. Furthermore SAF still creates non-CO2 emissions twice as warming as actual flight CO2 emissions.
• How far is it possible to ‘green’ an airplane?
https://fortune.com/europe/2024/09/03/green-airline-airplane-sustainable-aviation-fuel-saf-virgin/
• Sustainable Aviation Fuel: The Key to Decarbonizing Air Travel
https://news.samsungcnt.com/en/features/trading-investment/2024-09-sustainable-aviation-fuel-the-key-to-decarbonizing-air-travel/
• Sustainable aviation fuel 101: A guide to net-zero carbon by 2050
https://trellis.net/article/despite-new-incentives-sustainable-aviation-fuel-rollout-faces-steep-challenges/
• SAF: Understanding Lifecycle Emissions
https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ae0a56aa-4ba8-4670-8346-7e44bdfe8923
• SAF Poised to Triple by 2024, Driving Aviation Decarbonisation
https://theelectricityhub.com/saf-poised-to-triple-by-2024-driving-aviation-decarbonisation/
• Civil aviation minister pitches for sustainable aviation practices, regional air connectivity
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/civil-aviation-minister-pitches-for-sustainable-aviation-practices-regional-air-connectivity/113189775
• UAE plans to establish green aviation centre to reduce carbon emissions
https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/aviation/2024/09/14/uae-plans-to-establish-green-aviation-centre-to-reduce-carbon-emissions/
• SAF Production, Availability and Use Continue to Rise
https://nbaa.org/news/business-aviation-insider/202409/saf-production-availability-and-use-continue-to-rise/
• 49ers and United Airlines Launch SAF Pilot Project to Reduce Carbon Emissions From Air Travel
https://biofuelscentral.com/49ers-and-united-airlines-launch-saf-pilot-project-to-reduce-carbon-emissions-from-air-travel-sustainable-aviation-fuel
• DHL and Formula 1® take flight with Sustainable Aviation Fuel
https://group.dhl.com/en/media-relations/press-releases/2024/dhl-and-formula-1-take-flight-with-sustainable-aviation-fuel.html
• Waste plastic can improve sustainable aviation fuel, researchers find
https://blogs.illinois.edu/view/7447/1956692034
• Climate-Smart Biofuel is Coming
https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/food-agriculture-environment/climate-smart-biofuel-is-coming
• Transforming seaweeds into raw materials for aviation fuel and pharmaceuticals
https://phys.org/news/2024-09-seaweeds-raw-materials-aviation-fuel.amp
‘SUSTAINABLE’ AVIATION FUELS IN AUSTRALIA
• The golden fields we see on the highway are powering the next wave of air travel
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-golden-fields-we-see-on-the-highway-are-powering-the-next-wave-of-air-travel-20240930-p5keki.html
• Sustainable Aviation Fuel in Aussie skies? Government nods but more consultation needed
https://www.kwm.com/au/en/insights/latest-thinking/sustainable-aviation-fuel-in-aussie-skies-government-nods-but-more-consultation-needed.html
• Australia’s government maps out 2050 sustainable aviation plan, New Zealand urged to follow
https://www.greenairnews.com/?p=6043
• ARENA announces AUD$9 million investment to accelerate development of SAF production in Queensland
https://bioenergytimes.com/arena-announces-aud9-million-investment-to-accelerate-development-of-saf-production-in-queensland/
‘SUSTAINABLE’ AVIATION FUELS FINANCING
• Banks May Become A Key Player In Aviation’s Decarbonization
https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwyman/2024/09/05/banks-may-become-a-key-player-in-aviations-decarbonization/
• How sustainable aviation fuel alters airline cost structure and market dynamics
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15568318.2024.2397642?src=
• Federal Interagency Sustainable Aviation Fuel Progress Metrics and $12 Million in Funding to Support the Advancement of Integrated Biorefinery Technologies
https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/articles/just-announced-federal-interagency-sustainable-aviation-fuel-progress
• Policies and incentives support sustainable aviation fuels
https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/policies-incentives-support-sustainable-aviation-fuels-2024-09-13/
• NCGA Supports Legislation Establishing Guidelines for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Tax Credits
https://ncga.com/stay-informed/media/in-the-news/article/2024/09/ncga-supports-legislation-establishing-guidelines-for-sustainable-aviation-fuel-tax-credits
… growth in flights
AIRPORT EXPANSIONS
• Minister approves Melbourne Airport third runway
https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/melbourne-airport-third-runway
• Third Runway Major Development Plan Melbourne Airport Conditions of Approval
https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/third-runway-major-development-plan-melbourne-airport-conditions-of-approval-16september2024.pdf
• Community challenges approval of Melbourne Airport’s Third Runway
https://flightfree.net.au/minister-approves-melbourne-airport-third-runway/
• Federal government approves third runway for Melbourne airport
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/sep/13/federal-government-approves-third-runway-for-melbourne-airport
• Possible challenge over Melbourne airport runway
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/pm/possible-challenge-over-melbourne-airport-runway/104350482
• Climate conversation about 3rd runway approval
https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/robert-mclean/episodes/Interview-Well–who-are-you-gonna-call—when-its-about-the-third-runway-at-Melbournes-Tullamarine-Airport–its-Mark-Carter–of-course–from-Flight-Free-Australia-e2ohi8f/a-abhj862
• Federal government approves Melbourne Airport third runway with ‘noise’ conditions imposed
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-12/federal-government-third-runway-melbourne-airport/104345496
PASSENGER GROWTH
• Academics say flying to meetings harms the climate — but they carry on
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02965-7
… non-CO2 emissions
• ICAO symposium on non-CO2 aviation emissions
https://www.icao.int/Meetings/SymposiumNonCO2AviationEmissions2024/Documents/Non%20CO2%20Symposium%20Digital%20Programme.pdf
• Contrail avoidance is less likely to damage climate by mistake than previously thought
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1057969
• Plane contrails: white fluffy contributors to global warming
https://phys.org/news/2024-09-plane-contrails-white-fluffy-contributors.html
• What are non-CO2 emissions and how can we enhance cooperation in addressing them?
https://unitingaviation.com/news/environment/what-are-non-co2-emissions-and-how-can-we-enhance-cooperation-in-addressing-them/
• Cutting through the noise on contrails
https://www.transportenvironment.org/articles/cutting-through-the-noise-on-contrails
… offsets
When all sectors need to reduce their emissions to zero, the aviation industry buys/offsets the reductions of others in order to grow its own emissions. When the planet is already dangerously hot, offsets steal carbon drawdown needed to cool the planet to excuse further emissions.
• British Airways to become the largest purchaser of carbon removals in the UK* as part of 2030 environmental drive
https://mediacentre.britishairways.com/news/23092024/british-airways-to-become-the-largest-purchaser-of-carbon-removals-in-the-uk-as-part-of-2030-environmental-drive
Reducing emissions by
… marginal tech ‘solutions’
FUEL EFFICIENCY
• EasyJet and JetZero partner to develop blended wing body aircraft for commercial aviation
https://startupsmagazine.co.uk/article-easyjet-and-jetzero-partner-develop-blended-wing-body-aircraft-commercial-aviation
• Jet Zero Gains Altitude
https://www.airlineratings.com/articles/jet-zero-gains-altitude
• How shortcuts across the skies can make flights greener
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/environment/2024/09/23/sustainability/shortcuts-make-flights-greener/
… alternative fuels
HYDROGEN
Hydrogen-powered aircraft will not have zero emissions, even if hydrogen is produced from renewable electricity, because it will still emit NOx and generate contrail cirrus that have a higher climate impact than CO2 today. The deployment of “green” hydrogen in aviation would require huge quantities of renewable electricity, which would deprive other sectors needing to decarbonise. Hydrogen will not be viable for medium and long-haul flights before 2050, much too late to tackle the climate emergency.
• Decarbonising flight
https://www.unsw.edu.au/science/about-us/creating-impact/decarbonising-flight
E-FUELS
Manufacturing eFuel is an inefficient use of renewable electricity. Aviation’s reliance on eFuels in the long term — to reach net zero 2050 — could require 9% of global renewable electricity in 2050. Demand for huge quantities of renewables for eFuels would deprive all other sectors needing renewables to decarbonise.
• Resource requirements and availability for GHG-neutral aviation
https://ptxlablausitz.de/en/events/study-publication-resource-requirements-and-availability-for-ghg-neutral-aviation/
… alternative travel modes
RAIL
• High-speed rail plans may finally end Australia’s 40-year wait to get on board
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/australian-politics/2024/09/16/high-speed-rail
… bans and caps
FOSSIL FUEL AD BANS
• The Hague becomes world’s first city to pass law banning fossil fuel-related ads
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/13/the-hague-becomes-worlds-first-city-to-ban-fossil-fuel-related-ads
FLIGHT CAPS
• Capping airports: An analysis of the Schiphol Airport campaign
https://stay-grounded.org/schipol_airport_case/
DE-TOURISTING
• Norway is shying away from tourism – and other countries could learn from it
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/24/norway-tourism-natural-environment-weekend-economic
• Almost 68% of Australia’s tourism sites at major risk if climate crisis continues, report says
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/sep/09/almost-68-of-australias-tourism-sites-at-major-risk-if-climate-crisis-continues-report-says
… behaviour change
• Behavioral research on transport and energy in the context of aviation
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B9780128159651000120
EMISSIONS CALCULATION
• Flight emissions data shown in over 65 billion searches worldwide
https://www.webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?aId=326864
Climate emergency
• EU’s 2030 emission targets ‘alarmingly off-track’ from Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal, challenged in court
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/eus-2030-emission-targets-alarmingly-off-track-from-paris-agreements-15c-goal-challenged-in-court
• Scientists predict a collapse of the Atlantic ocean current to happen mid-century
https://science.ku.dk/english/press/news/2023/gloomy-climate-calculation-scientists-predict-a-collapse-of-the-atlantic-ocean-current-to-happen-mid-century/
• Earth may have breached seven of nine planetary boundaries, health check shows
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/sep/23/earth-breach-planetary-boundaries-health-check-oceans